民間予測調査の理由

Has revised downward its outlook for fiscal 2012 in Japan, a private research institution after another. If true, the demand for full-scale reconstruction of 9 trillion yen from the previous year on a high Geta, who had earlier been expected to grow by 2%, 1 by the European sovereign risk spread worldwide. mere 9% growth in fiscal expansion is expected to be effeminate.

Outlook for their correction, the gross domestic product Mon 7 ─ 9 (GDP) after the announcement of the preliminary primary, which was released this week after entering.

Bank of Japan in late October, "Prospects for economic inflation situation (outlook report)", the growth forecast for fiscal 2000 (expected many of the policy committee) was 2.2%, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Economic Outlook in September at 2.3%, about 2.2 percent economists forecast domestic growth is expected in the first half was 2%. But come here, reflecting the greater the risk that the bulging of the world economy began to significantly cut domestic economists forecast first.

Growth rate of 1.9%, relatively high compared to Europe, but also look out from the firm's potential growth rate of the Japanese economy, when considering the reconstruction period after the earthquake that hit compared to other countries, on the contrary " weak, "It's kind of also.

The main downward factors through next year, slowing external demand due to foreign economic slowdown and the strong yen, sluggish domestic investment abroad due to the accelerating shift of nuclear stopping and the company received a strong yen, increased consumer spending due to higher taxes paid by households the suppression and the like.

In the main scenario for this company, feeling increasingly stagnant economy the immediate future, trying to get into a landing situation. If you assume the chaos in financial markets, particularly Europe, sovereign risk, "Japan's economic impact could push down more than 4% of GDP in the worst-case" (DIR) estimates that even with pop.

However, both companies "get into a potential economic slowdown in Japan is still low" (Nomura) in view of the match. Because, it is expected that the upward growth of the fiscal year 11 1 ─ 3, about 0.5 ─ 1% "Geta" launching pad for other increases in order to foil the fiscal year, The effect is expected to be the third supplementary budget of 12 trillion yen, which is expected to boost GDP by about 1 percent less than demand recovery. During the second half with the background that can be expected to rally in emerging economies.